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Watermass transformation in the Irminger Sea, a key region for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is influenced by atmospheric and oceanic variability. Strong wintertime atmospheric forcing in 2015 resulted in enhanced convection and the densification of the Irminger Sea. Deep convection persisted until 2018, even though winters following 2015 were mild. We show that this behavior can be attributed to an initially slow convergence of buoyancy, followed by more rapid convergence of buoyancy. This two‐stage recovery, in turn, is consistent with restratification driven by baroclinic instability of the Irminger Current (IC), that flows around the basin. The initial, slow restratification resulted from the weak horizontal density gradients created by the widespread 2015 atmospheric heat loss. Faster restratification occurred once the IC recovered. This mechanism explains the delayed recovery of the Irminger Sea following a single extreme winter and has implications for the ventilation and overturning that occurs in the basin.

 

The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at an accelerating pace, increasing its contribution to the freshwater input into the Nordic Seas and the subpolar North Atlantic. It has been proposed that this increased freshwater may impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by affecting the stratification of the convective regions of the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. Observations of the transformation and pathways of meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet on the continental shelf and in the gyre interior, however, are lacking. Here, we report on noble gas derived observations of submarine meltwater distribution and transports in the East and West Greenland Current Systems of southern Greenland and around Cape Farewell. In southeast Greenland, submarine meltwater is concentrated in the East Greenland Coastal Current core with maximum concentrations of 0.8%, thus significantly diluted relative to fjord observations. It is found in water with density ranges from 1,024 to 1027.2 kg m⁻³and salinity from 30.6 to 34, which extends as deep as 250 m and as far offshore as 60 km on the Greenland shelf. Submarine meltwater transport on the shelf averages 5.0 ± 1.6 mSv which, if representative of the mean annual transport, represents 60%–80% of the total solid ice discharge from East Greenland and suggests relatively little offshore export of meltwater east and upstream of Cape Farewell. The location of the meltwater transport maximum shifts toward the shelfbreak around Cape Farewell, positioning the meltwater for offshore flux in regions of known cross‐shelf exchange along the West Greenland coast.

 

Abstract Fresh Arctic waters flowing into the Atlantic are thought to have two primary fates. They may be mixed into the deep ocean as part of the overturning circulation, or flow alongside regions of deep water formation without impacting overturning. Climate models suggest that as increasing amounts of freshwater enter the Atlantic, the overturning circulation will be disrupted, yet we lack an understanding of how much freshwater is mixed into the overturning circulation’s deep limb in the present day. To constrain these freshwater pathways, we build steady-state volume, salt, and heat budgets east of Greenland that are initialized with observations and closed using inverse methods. Freshwater sources are split into oceanic Polar Waters from the Arctic and surface freshwater fluxes, which include net precipitation, runoff, and ice melt, to examine how they imprint the circulation differently. We find that 65 mSv (1 Sv ≡ 10 6 m 3 s −1 ) of the total 110 mSv of surface freshwater fluxes that enter our domain participate in the overturning circulation, as do 0.6 Sv of the total 1.2 Sv of Polar Waters that flow through Fram Strait. Based on these results, we hypothesize that the overturning circulation is more sensitive to future changes in Arctic freshwater outflow and precipitation, while Greenland runoff and iceberg melt are more likely to stay along the coast of Greenland. 

Abstract. Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the “retreat” and “submarine melt” implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change. 

Abstract. The effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Greenland Ice Sheet through submarine melting of Greenland's tidewater glacier calving fronts is thought to be a key driver of widespread glacier retreat, dynamic mass loss and sea level contribution from the ice sheet. Despite its critical importance, problems of process complexity and scale hinder efforts to represent the influence of submarine melting in ice-sheet-scale models. Here we propose parameterizing tidewater glacier terminus position as a simple linear function of submarine melting, with submarine melting in turn estimated as a function of subglacial discharge and ocean temperature. The relationship is tested, calibrated and validated using datasets of terminus position, subglacial discharge and ocean temperature covering the full ice sheet and surrounding ocean from the period 1960–2018. We demonstrate a statistically significant link between multi-decadal tidewater glacier terminus position change and submarine melting and show that the proposed parameterization has predictive power when considering a population of glaciers. An illustrative 21st century projection is considered, suggesting that tidewater glaciers in Greenland will undergo little further retreat in a low-emission RCP2.6 scenario. In contrast, a high-emission RCP8.5 scenario results in a median retreat of 4.2 km, with a quarter of tidewater glaciers experiencing retreat exceeding 10 km. Our study provides a long-term and ice-sheet-wide assessment of the sensitivity of tidewater glaciers to submarine melting and proposes a practical and empirically validated means of incorporating ocean forcing into models of the Greenland ice sheet. 

Abstract. The frontal flux balance of a medium-sized tidewater glacier in westernGreenland in the summer is assessed by quantifying the individual components(ice flux, retreat, calving, and submarine melting) through a combination ofdata and models. Ice flux and retreat are obtained from satellite data.Submarine melting is derived using a high-resolution ocean model informed bynear-ice observations, and calving is estimated using a record of calvingevents along the ice front. All terms exhibit large spatial variability alongthe ∼5 km wide ice front. It is found that submarine melting accountsfor much of the frontal ablation in small regions where two subglacialdischarge plumes emerge at the ice front. Away from the subglacial plumes,the estimated melting accounts for a small fraction of frontal ablation.Glacier-wide, these estimates suggest that mass loss is largely controlled bycalving. This result, however, is at odds with the limited presence oficebergs at this calving front – suggesting that melt rates in regionsoutside of the subglacial plumes may be underestimated. Finally, we arguethat localized melt incisions into the glacier front can be significantdrivers of calving. Our results suggest a complex interplay of melting andcalving marked by high spatial variability along the glacier front.